The Three-Body Problem Page 16

  “I agree,” Ye said, softly, but resolutely.

  Thus, on this early summer evening, as the wind howled through the giant parabolic antenna, and as the forest rustled over the Greater Khingan Mountains in the distance, Yang Weining explained to Ye Wenjie the true nature of Red Coast.

  It was a fairy tale for the ages, even more incredible than the commissar’s lies.

  13

  Red Coast III

  SELECTED DOCUMENTS FROM THE RED COAST PROJECT

  These documents were declassified three years after Ye Wenjie told Wang Miao the inside story of Red Coast and provide background information for what she told him.

  I.

  A Question Largely Ignored by Trends in Fundamental World Scientific Research

  (Originally published in Internal Reference, XX/XX/196X)

  [Abstract] Based on modern and contemporary history, there are two ways in which the results of fundamental scientific research can be converted into practical applications: gradualistic mode and saltatory mode.

  Gradualistic mode: theoretical, fundamental results are gradually applied to technology; advances accumulate until they reach a breakthrough. Recent examples include the development of space technology.

  Saltatory mode: theoretical, fundamental results rapidly become applied technology, leading to a technological leap. Recent examples include the appearance of atomic weapons. Until the forties, some of the foremost physicists still thought it would never be possible to release the energy of the atom. But atomic weapons then appeared within a very short period. We define a technology leap to occur when fundamental science is converted to applied technology across a great span in an extremely brief time interval.

  Currently, both NATO and the Warsaw Pact are intensely active in fundamental research and investing heavily in it. One or more technological leaps can occur at any time. Such an occurrence will pose a major threat to our strategic planning.

  This article argues that our focus is currently on the gradualistic mode of technology development and insufficient attention is paid to the possibility of technology leaps. Starting from a higher vantage point, we should develop a comprehensive strategy and set of principles so that we can respond appropriately when technological leaps occur.

  Fields where technological leaps are most likely:

  Physics: [omitted]

  Biology: [omitted]

  Computer Science: [omitted]

  The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI): Of all fields, this is the one in which the possibility for a technology leap is greatest. If a leap occurs in this field, the impact will exceed the sum of technology leaps in the other three fields.

  [Full Text][omitted]

  [Instructions from Central Leadership] Distribute this article to appropriate personnel and organize discussion groups. The article’s views will not be to the liking of some, but let’s not rush to label the author. The key is to appreciate the author’s long-term thinking. Some comrades cannot see beyond the ends of their noses, possibly because of the greater political environment, possibly because of their arrogance. This is not good. Strategic blind spots are extremely dangerous.

  In my view, of the four fields where technology leaps may occur, we have given the least thought to the last one. It’s worth some attention, and we should systematically analyze the matter in depth.

  Signed: XXX Date: XX/XX/196X

  II.

  Research Report on the Possibility of Technology Leap Due to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

  1. Current International Research Trends [Summary]

  (1) The United States and other NATO states: The scientific case and the necessity for SETI are generally accepted, and strong academic support exists.

  Project Ozma: In 1960, the National Radio Astronomy Observatory at Green Bank, West Virginia, searched for extraterrestrial intelligence with a radio telescope 26 meters in diameter. The project examined the stars Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani for 200 hours using ranges near the 1.420 gigahertz frequency. Project Ozma II, which will involve more targets and a broader frequency range, is planned for 1972.

  Probes: The Pioneer 10 and Pioneer 11 probes, each of which will carry a metal plaque containing information about civilization on Earth, are scheduled for launch in 1972. The Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 probes, each of which will carry a metal audio record, are scheduled for launch in 1977.

  The Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico: Constructed in 1963, this is an important instrument for SETI. Its effective energy collection area is about 20 acres, which is greater than the sum of the collecting areas of all other radio telescopes in the world. When combined with its computer system, it can simultaneously monitor 65,000 channels and is also capable of ultrahigh-energy transmissions.

  (2) The Soviet Union: Few sources of intelligence are available, but there are indications that large investments have been made in the field. Compared to NATO countries, the research seems to be more systematic and long term. Based on certain isolated information channels, plans are currently under way to build a global-scale very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) aperture-synthesis radio telescope system. Once the system is completed, it will possess the world’s most powerful deep-space exploration capabilities.

  2. Preliminary Analysis of Social Patterns of Extraterrestrial Civilizations Using a Materialist Conception of History [omitted]

  3. Preliminary Analysis of the Influence of Extraterrestrial Civilizations on Human Social and Political Trends [omitted]

  4. Preliminary Analysis of the Influence on Current International Patterns Due to Possible Contact with Extraterrestrial Civilizations

  (1) Unidirectional contact (only receiving messages sent by extraterrestrial intelligence): [omitted]

  (2) Bidirectional contact (exchange of messages with extraterrestrial intelligence and direct contact): [omitted]

  5. The Danger and Consequences of Superpowers Making Initial Contact with Extraterrestrial Intelligence and Monopolizing Such Contact

  (1) Analysis of consequences of American Imperialists and NATO making initial contact with extraterrestrial intelligence and monopolizing such contact: [still classified]

  (2) Analysis of consequences of Soviet Revisionists and Warsaw Pact making initial contact with extraterrestrial intelligence and monopolizing such contact: [still classified]

  [Instructions from Central Leadership] Others have already sent their messages out into space. It’s dangerous if extraterrestrials only hear their voices. We should speak up as well. Only then will they get a complete picture of human society. It’s not possible to get the truth by only listening to one side. We must make this happen, and quickly.

  Signed: XXX Date: XX/XX/196X

  III.

  Research Report on the Initial Phase of the Red Coast Project (XX/XX/196X)

  TOP SECRET

  Number of Copies: 2

  Summary Document: Central Document Number XXXXXX, forwarded to the Commission for Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Central Planning Commission, Department of National Defense; disseminated at the XXXXXX Conference and the XXXXXX Conference; partially disseminated at the XXXXXX Conference.

  Topic Serial Number: 3760

  Code Name: “Red Coast”

  1. Goal [Summary]

  To search for the possible existence of extraterrestrial intelligence and to attempt contact and exchange.

  2. Theoretical Study of the Red Coast Project

  (1) Searching and Monitoring

  Monitoring frequency range: 1,000 MHz to 40,000 MHz

  Monitoring channels: 15,000

  Key frequencies to monitor:

  Hydrogen atom frequency at 1,420 MHz

  Hydroxyl radical radiation frequency at 1,667 MHz

  Water molecule radiation frequency at 22,000 MHz

  Monitoring target range: a sphere centered around Earth with a radius of 1,000 light-years, containing approximately 20 million stars.
For a list of targets, please see Appendix 1.

  (2) Message Transmission

  Transmission frequencies: 2,800 MHz, 12,000 MHz, 22,000 MHz

  Transmission power: 10–25 megawatts

  Transmission targets: a sphere centered around Earth with a radius of 200 light-years, containing approximately 100,000 stars. For a list of targets, please see Appendix 2.

  (3) Development of the Red Coast Self-Interpreting Code System

  Guiding principle: using universal, basic mathematical and physical laws, construct an elemental linguistic code that can be understood by any civilization that has mastered basic algebra, Euclidean geometry, and the laws of classical mechanics (nonrelativistic physics).

  Using the elemental code above and supplemented with low-resolution images, gradually build up to a full linguistic system. Languages supported: Chinese and Esperanto.

  The entire system’s information content should be 680 KB. Transmission times at the 2,800 MHz, 12,000 MHz, and 22,000 MHz channels are 1,183 minutes, 224 minutes, and 132 minutes respectively.

  3. Implementation Plan for the Red Coast Project

  (1) Preliminary Design for the Red Coast Monitoring and Searching System [still classified]

  (2) Preliminary Design for the Red Coast Transmission System [still classified]

  (3) Preliminary Site-Selection Plan for Red Coast Base [omitted]

  (4) Preliminary Thoughts on the Formation of Red Coast Force from within the Second Artillery Corps [still classified]

  4. Content of Message Transmitted by Red Coast [Summary]

  Overview of Earth (3.1 KB), overview of life on Earth (4.4 KB), overview of human society (4.6 KB), basic world history (5.4 KB).

  Total information content: 17.5 KB.

  The entire message will be sent after transmitting the self-interpreting code system. Transmission times of message at the 2,800 MHz, 12,000 MHz, and 22,000 MHz channels are 31 minutes, 7.5 minutes, and 3.5 minutes, respectively.

  The message will be carefully vetted by a multidisciplinary review to ensure that it will not give away the Earth’s coordinates relative to the Milky Way. Among the three channels, transmission at the higher-frequency 12,000 MHz and 22,000 MHz channels should be minimized to reduce the likelihood that the source of transmission may be precisely ascertained.

  IV.

  Message to Extraterrestrial Civilizations

  First Draft [Complete Text]

  Attention, you who have received this message! This message was sent out by a country that represents revolutionary justice on Earth! Before this, you may have already received other messages sent from the same direction. Those messages were sent by an imperialist superpower on this planet. That superpower is struggling against another superpower for world domination so that it can drag human history backwards. We hope you will not listen to their lies. Stand with justice, stand with the revolution!

  [Instructions from Central Leadership] This is utter crap! It’s enough to put up big-character posters27 everywhere on the ground, but we should not send them into space. The Cultural Revolution leadership should no longer have any involvement with Red Coast. Such an important message must be composed carefully. It’s probably best to have it drafted by a special committee and then discussed and approved by a meeting of the Politburo.

  Signed: XXX Date: XX/XX/196X

  Second Draft [omitted]

  Third Draft [omitted]

  Fourth Draft [Complete Text]

  We extend our best wishes to you, inhabitants of another world.

  After reading the following message, you should have a basic understanding of civilization on Earth. By dint of long toil and creativity, the human race has built a splendid civilization, blossoming with a multitude of diverse cultures. We have also begun to understand the laws governing the natural world and the development of human societies. We cherish all that we have accomplished.

  But our world is still flawed. Hate exists, as does prejudice and war. Because of conflicts between the forces of production and the relations of production, wealth distribution is extremely uneven, and large portions of humanity live in poverty and misery.

  Human societies are working hard to resolve the difficulties and problems they face, striving to create a better future for Earth civilization. The country that sent this message is engaged in this effort. We are dedicated to building an ideal society, where the labor and value of every member of the human race are fully respected, where everyone’s material and spiritual needs are fully met, so that civilization on Earth may become more perfect.

  With the best of intentions, we look forward to establishing contact with other civilized societies in the universe. We look forward to working together with you to build a better life in this vast universe.

  V.

  Related Policies and Strategies

  1. Consideration of Policies and Strategies After Reception of Message from Extraterrestrial Intelligence [omitted]

  2. Consideration of Policies and Strategies After Establishing Contact with Extraterrestrial Intelligence [omitted]

  [Instructions from Central Leadership] It’s important to take the time out of our busy schedules to do something entirely unrelated to our immediate needs. This project has allowed us to give some thought to issues we have never had time for. Indeed, we can think through them only when we take a sufficiently high vantage point. This alone is enough to justify the Red Coast Project.

  How wonderful it will be if the universe really contains other intelligences and other societies! Bystanders have the clearest view. Someone truly neutral will then be able to comment on whether we’re the heroes or villains of history.

  Signed: XXX Date: XX/XX/196X

  14

  Red Coast IV

  “Professor Ye,” Wang Miao said, “I have a question. Back then, SETI was marginalized research. Why did the Red Coast Project have such a high security rating?”

  “That question was asked during the very first phases of the Red Coast Project, and continued to be asked until the end. But now you should know the answer. We can only be impressed by the foresight of the top decision-maker responsible for the Red Coast Project.”

  “Yes, he thought far ahead.” Wang nodded gravely.

  Wang knew that it was only within the last couple of years that serious and systematic consideration had been given to the question of how and to what degree human societies would be influenced by establishing contact with extraterrestrial intelligence, but the research had rapidly gained interest, and the conclusions were shocking.

  Naïve, idealistic hopes had been shattered. Scholars found that, contrary to the happy wishes of most people, it was not a good idea for the human race as a whole to make contact with extraterrestrials. The impact of such contact on human society would be divisive rather than uniting, and would exacerbate rather than mitigate the conflicts between different cultures. In summary, if contact were to occur, the internal divisions within Earth civilization would be magnified and likely lead to disaster. The most shocking conclusion of all was that the impact would have nothing at all to do with the degree and type of contact (unidirectional or bidirectional), or the form and degree of advancement of the alien civilization.

  This was the theory of “contact as symbol” proposed by sociologist Bill Mathers of RAND Corporation in his book, The 100,000-Light-Year Iron Curtain: SETI Sociology. Mathers believed that contact with an alien civilization is only a symbol or a switch. Regardless of the content of the encounter, the results would be the same.

  Suppose that the nature of the contact is such that only the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence is confirmed, with no other substantive information—what Mathers called elementary contact. The impact would be magnified by the lens of human mass psychology and culture until it resulted in huge, substantive influences on the progress of civilization. If such contact were monopolized by one country or political force, the significance would be comparable to an overwhelming advantage in economic a
nd military power.

  “How did Red Coast end?”

  “You can probably guess.”

  Wang nodded again. Of course he understood that, had Red Coast succeeded, the world today would be very different. To comfort Ye, he said, “It’s still too early to tell if it succeeded or not. The radio waves sent out by Red Coast haven’t gone very far in the universe yet.”

  Ye shook her head. “The farther the signals travel, the weaker they become, and the less likely that any extraterrestrial civilization will receive them. Of course, if aliens have already detected the Earth’s existence and its oxygen-rich atmosphere and decided to focus powerful equipment specifically at us, the story would be different. But, in general, research shows that in order for extraterrestrials to detect our signals, we must broadcast at a power level equal to the energy output of a midsized star.

  “Soviet astrophysicist Nicolai Kardashev once proposed that civilizations can be divided into three types based on the power they can command—for communication purposes, let’s say. A Type I civilization can muster an amount of energy equivalent to the total energy output of the Earth. Based on his estimates, the energy output of the Earth is about 1015 to 1016 watts. A Type II civilization can marshal the energy equivalent to the output of a typical star—1026 watts. A Type III civilization’s communication energy can reach 1036 watts, approximately equal to the energy output of a galaxy. Civilization on Earth is currently about a Type 0.7, not even a full Type I. And the transmissions from Red Coast used only about one ten-millionth of the amount of power the Earth could muster. Our call was like the buzzing of a mosquito in the sky. No one could hear it.”

  “But if Kardashev’s Type II and Type III civilizations really exist, we should be able to hear them.”

  “We never heard anything during the twenty years that Red Coast was in operation.”